I’m going to look at what there is still left to play for on the last day of the Premier League season.
There are huge games that will decide the relegation and European football spots tomorrow, and I have laid out all the possibilities for what could happen, as well as my predictions.
But, to be honest, who even knows anymore?
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Embed from Getty ImagesObviously, Liverpool’s place in next year’s Champions League has been secure for a long time. And, with Manchester City’s ban having been lifted, they will also be found in Europe’s elite competition.
The last two spots remain truly up for grabs. There is just one point separating Manchester United (3rd, 63 points), Chelsea (4th, 63 points) and Leicester City (5th, 62 points). The fixtures that include those clubs are:
Chelsea v Wolves
Leicester v Man Utd
Should Chelsea avoid defeat against Wolves, their place in the top four will be secure. They don’t necessarily need a point, though; should they lose to Wolves, they will still finish 4th if United beat Leicester. However, Lampard would much prefer for his side to get a result themselves, keeping their fate in their own hands.
With 3rd and 5th in the league playing against each other, it pretty much is all or nothing for Leicester City. With United being a point ahead, a draw will be enough for them to clinch a top four spot. A draw may be enough for Leicester, as they have a far better goal difference when compared to Chelsea. But again, they would be in dire need of Wolves getting the three points. A win for Brendan Rodgers’s side would see the Foxes leapfrog United in the table, and then it would be Solskjær’s side missing out.
So, to reiterate – for each team to get into the top four, the following must happen:
Man Utd: WIN/DRAW against Leicester
OR LOSE, IF Wolves beat Chelsea
Chelsea: WIN/DRAW against Wolves
OR LOSE, IF Man Utd beat Leicester
Leicester: WIN against Man Utd
OR DRAW, IF Wolves beat Chelsea
My prediction:
Leicester 2–2 Man Utd, Chelsea 1–1 Wolves
Result: Manchester Utd – 3rd, Chelsea – 4th, Leicester – 5th
EUROPA LEAGUE
Embed from Getty ImagesBecause of the point tallies and goal differences of the sides above them, no team other than the three listed above can possibly reach 5th in the league. This means that there is only one guaranteed European position left, with another one possible, dependent on the FA Cup Final.
Those spots will be shared by Wolves (6th, 59 points) and Tottenham (7th, 58 points). Sheffield Utd and Burnley both sit on 54 points, 4 behind Tottenham, so neither side will get European football next season. Arsenal sit in 10th with 53 points, but, crucially, have an FA Cup Final to play.
So, the fixtures involving the teams with European aspirations are:
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Arsenal v Chelsea (FA Cup Final, 1st August)
Should Wolves beat Chelsea, that would not only mean that Chelsea may play in the Europa League too, but Nuno Santo’s team would have 6th spot. Should Spurs lose to Palace, then Wolves will also have guaranteed European football, no matter what happens at Stamford Bridge.
However, Wolves will really want to beat Chelsea, as their place is not secure at all. Should they lose to the Blues, then Spurs would only need a point at Selhurst Park to snatch 6th. And, should Spurs beat Palace, then even a point would not be enough for Wolves.
Neither side will want to finish in 7th. Not only would that mean a few more fixtures to qualify for the competition at the start of next season, but their European place isn’t safe. Arsenal play Chelsea (who will play in the Europa League at the very least) at Wembley on the 1st of August. As the winner of that competition gets a place in the Europa League, 7th in the League may not be enough. Should Arsenal win the cup, they will get Europe, and whoever is in 7th will not.
So, these are all the possibilities:
Wolves: WIN against Chelsea
OR DRAW/LOSE, IF Palace beat Tottenham
OR if Chelsea beat Arsenal.
Tottenham: WIN against Palace IF Wolves draw/lose to Chelsea
OR DRAW IF Chelsea beat Wolves
OR if Chelsea beat Arsenal.
Arsenal: ONLY IF they beat Chelsea at Wembley.
My Prediction:
Chelsea 1–1 Wolves, Crystal Palace 2-3 Tottenham, Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
Result: Tottenham – 6th, Wolves – 7th, Arsenal – Europa League
RELEGATION
Embed from Getty ImagesWith Norwich already relegated, there are still two spots in next season’s Championship left to be decided. The clubs still in danger are Bournemouth (19th, 31 points), Watford (18th, 34 points) and Aston Villa (17th, 34 points). Brighton and West Ham both sit four points clear, and so will be playing Premier League football next season.
The fixtures including the teams in perilous positions are:
West Ham v Aston Villa
Everton v Bournemouth
Arsenal v Watford
After their unbelievable resurgence since the restart, and some help from goal-line technology (or whoever turned it off), Aston Villa are best-placed to stay up. Their safety is in their own hands – a win against already-safe but in-form West Ham would see them all but safe from the drop. However, Watford have just one less in goal difference, so a large margin of victory for them could still see the Villains drop into the bottom three. A draw or loss could still be enough, but they would be reliant on the teams below them having even worse results.
Managerless Watford face a tough battle to stay in the Premier league. They know that they must better Aston Villa’s result to stay in the top-flight. Plus, they are playing against an Arsenal side with a point to prove, after they lost to Aston Villa on Tuesday. A win for Aston Villa would mean that the Hornets need to beat Arsenal by a huge margin. Should Watford’s margin of victory be level to Villa’s, Watford go down. If they win by one more than Villa win by, Watford go down based on goals scored. Watford would therefore have to beat Arsenal by two more goals than Villa beat West Ham by. Therefore, it’s not exactly looking peachy for them. Should Villa draw, Watford need a win, and a win for West Ham would mean that Watford just need a point.
The team in the most trouble is Bournemouth. Eddie Howe’s side sit three points behind their competitors, but their survival is still a possibility. Their circumstances for victory are far less complicated what Watford’s: they need both Villa and Watford to lose, and they need to beat Everton at Goodison Park. Any less than a win for them would see them drop to the Championship.
So, by trying to sum up all of the many possibilities that may occur tomorrow, I have come up with this *ahem* SIMPLE list of possibilities for each club in danger:
Aston Villa: WIN against West Ham IF Watford lose/draw/win by a margin of less than two goals greater than Aston Villa’s scoreline against Arsenal
OR DRAW, IF Watford draw/lose
OR LOSE, IF Watford lose AND Bournemouth drop points against Everton.
Watford: Win against Arsenal IF Aston Villa lose/draw/win by a margin of two goals less than Watford’s margin
OR DRAW, IF Aston Villa lose
OR LOSE by a margin of two goals less than Aston Villa lose by AND Bournemouth drop points against Everton.
Bournemouth: Win against Everton IF both Aston Villa lose against West Ham AND Watford lose to Arsenal.
Phew.
My prediction:
West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa, Arsenal 2–1 Watford, Everton 3–1 Bournemouth
Result: Aston Villa – 17th, Watford – 18th, Bournemouth – 19th
P.S. Congratulations to Leeds United and West Bromwich Albion on your promotion; I look forward to reviewing your matches in the near future!
By Jed Vine
